Fantasy baseball pitcher rankings, lineup advice for Thursday (2024)

Look for our fantasy baseball starting pitcher rankings, hitter upgrades and downgrades daily to help you make smart fantasy baseball lineup decisions and for MLB betting tips. MLB game odds are provided by ESPN BET, and fantasy advice is geared toward ESPN 10-team leagues with standard scoring.

Note: This file will be updated with any overnight pitching changes or weather-related game postponements, along with the addition of the latest MLB game odds as of the indicated time of publication.

Former Phillies reunite in Baltimore

Boston Red Sox RHP Nick Pivetta and Baltimore Orioles RHP Zach Eflin teamed up as once-promising Phillies from 2017 through 2020, neither quite reaching their vast potential. Pivetta was traded to Boston for rental pitchers during the abbreviated 2020 season, while Eflin landed with the Rays after the 2022 campaign, signing the richest free agent contract in organization history. The Orioles traded for Eflin prior to the trade deadline. They meet Thursday, each better off since finding new landing spots, but neither universally rostered in ESPN standard leagues.

Pivetta, 31, has struggled since the All-Star break, and had his most recent start skipped to give him more rest. Fantasy managers know he is unlikely to ever contend for an ERA title, but that is not why we invest. Pivetta is among the starting pitcher leaders in strikeout percentage, and there is nothing wrong with his 1.14 WHIP. Pivetta has 10 strikeouts in three of six starts, but only one win in his past eight outings. He has not faced the Orioles this season. Current Orioles are hitting .280/.330/.462 against Pivetta, but only 1B Ryan Mountcastle and OF Cedric Mullins have faced him more than 20 times. His Phillies ERA over four seasons: 5.50. Since leaving Philadelphia: 4.36.

Eflin, 30, has won all three of his starts for the Orioles, permitting five earned runs over 19 1/3 innings (2.33 ERA), and his ERA stands at 3.83, its lowest in three months. Eflin will not match his breakout 2023 season, when he won 16 games with a 3.50 ERA and 186 strikeouts for the Rays, but he is critical to Baltimore's postseason hopes. Eflin beat the Red Sox in May, allowing three runs over five innings. Current Red Sox are hitting .375/.385/.703 against Eflin, with 3B Rafael Devers enjoying success. His Phillies ERA over seven years: 4.49. Since leaving Philadelphia: 3.64.

Fantasy managers should stick with Eflin, despite rocky statistics against Boston, for he has scored double-digit ESPN fantasy points in four consecutive starts, and he has been reliable since leaving the Phillies. The less-reliable Pivetta offers more fantasy upside, thanks to the myriad strikeouts, but also more downside, for his inability to prevent runs, and his inefficiency. One never knows if Pivetta will deliver a 25-point fantasy gem or cost you points. He has had 10 days off, which may be a good thing, but it is pure conjecture. Eflin is the safer bet.

Other things to know for Thursday

• Phillies fans surely will be watching to see how the NL East rival Braves fare in San Francisco, especially LHP Max Fried, who has walked eight hitters over two starts since returning from the injured list for forearm neuritis. Fried's ERA is up to 3.56, its highest since mid-May, and he can blame the uncharacteristic trend of recent free passes. The Giants are among the league leaders in drawing walks, but current Giants have done little with Fried, posting a .147/.247/.265 line against him in brief action. Our advice is stick with Fried and assume better control moving forward. Look for a low-scoring affair with Fried and Giants RHP Logan Webb.

• Twins RHP Bailey Ober looks for his 10th consecutive quality start and fifth straight win, facing a sputtering Rangers lineup. Ober is averaging 24.8 ESPN fantasy points per start over the past 30 days, highest in the sport, and the Rangers continue to struggle to score runs. Ober is enjoying some BABIP love this season, with a .241 mark that is among the league leaders, and his new cutter continues to flummox hitters. Ober has permitted only 32 hits over his past 61 1/3 innings, owning a 1.76 ERA in that span.

• As with Eflin, Dodgers RHP Jack Flaherty remains unbeaten for his new club, earning wins over the Athletics and Pirates since his recent acquisition from Detroit. Flaherty steps up in offensive class facing the Brewers, among the top run-scoring teams in the league. Opposing starter Tobias Myers boasts the lower ERA (2.79 to 2.97), but he cannot compare to Flaherty in missing bats. Flaherty continues to pile on the strikeouts, earning the best strikeout rate of his career, and he is two wins away from tying his career high of 11, set with the Cardinals in 2019.

Starting pitcher rankings for Thursday

Reliever report

To get the latest information on each team's bullpen hierarchy, as well as which pitchers might be facing a bit of fatigue and who might be the most likely suspects to vulture a save or pick up a surprise hold in their stead, check out the latest Closer Chart, which will be updated every morning.

Hitting report

Plan ahead in fantasy baseball with help from our Forecaster projections. Each day, we will provide an updated preview of the next 10 days for every team, projecting the matchup quality for hitters (overall and by handedness) as well as for base stealers.

Best sub-50% rostered hitters for Thursday

Best and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.

• Kerry Carpenter (DET, RF -- 9%) vs. Bryce Miller

• Ryan O'Hearn (BAL, 1B -- 42%) vs. Nick Pivetta

• Colt Keith (DET, 3B -- 15%) vs. Miller

• Ryan Mountcastle (BAL, 1B -- 42%) vs. Pivetta

• Jesse Winker (NYM, DH -- 14%) vs. Mitch Spence

• Luis Garcia Jr. (WSH, 2B -- 35%) at Zack Wheeler

• Victor Robles (SEA, CF -- 4%) at Kenta Maeda

• Matt Vierling (DET, RF -- 9%) vs. Miller

• J.D. Martinez (NYM, DH -- 13%) vs. Spence

• Luke Raley (SEA, RF -- 2%) at Maeda

Worst over-50% rostered hitters for Thursday

• Jorge Soler (ATL, RF -- 56%) at Logan Webb
  Marcell Ozuna (ATL, DH -- 98%) at Webb

• Willy Adames (MIL, SS -- 87%) vs. Jack Flaherty

• Jackson Holliday (BAL, SS -- 62%) vs. Nick Pivetta

• Austin Riley (ATL, 3B -- 94%) at Webb
  Matt Olson (ATL, 1B -- 96%) at Webb

• Brice Turang (MIL, 2B -- 65%) vs. Flaherty
  Michael Harris II (ATL, CF -- 74%) at Webb

• Adolis Garcia (TEX, RF -- 85%) vs. Bailey Ober

• William Contreras (MIL, C -- 99%) vs. Flaherty